Confessions of a (Former) Crypto Hodler
All crypto hodlers must be a little seasick (my knees are weak, stomach queasy), or maybe they’re still puking over the railings, many possibly don’t have anything left in their stomachs. The bear market can be brutal to the eternal optimist hodler in the crypto revolution, especially those without any financial market savvy.
The captain is smiling to himself since he has access to the weather charts. He knows the storm will pass, but he can’t give anyone a time-frame. He offers words of encouragement, but only a few can hear him over the gnashing of the killer whale’s teeth. The bitcoin price had to come down (and everything-else-crypto with it). It’s called a market correction, a pullback. This too shall pass.
In our hearts we know Bitcoin is going to triumph. Argentina and Paraguay settled a debt with Bitcoin. That’s huge. But still the price goes down (so institutions can increase their bags & naysayers can feel good about themselves).
No, Bitcoin is not dying, it’s skimming the bottom.
And that might take a while. So, what’s a hodler got to do?
Imagine not and your life’s dreams devaluing through your fingers (many probably don’t have to imagine). It’s not worth it to hold onto an ideology that is going to cost you. Fundamental analysis indicates that Bitcoin and many other altcoins are going to the moon, but first it needs to mine down a few layers to the hot lava for rocket fuel. It is my opinion this is what is happening now, but in this process of finding the bottom, mining rocket fuel, you might lose all your wealth, especially if you bought the hype and fantasy of infinite growth.
Every new product/market goes through an adoption cycle/price discovery. Go and check out the price charts for Apple & Amazon. This is good news. Once you understand the cycles it becomes easier to change your mindset to trading.
This is where real education begins.
Learning technical analysis can be confusing. There are many ‘experts’ on youtube, a good majority of them could be used as contra-indicators (do the opposite to them) and you make money. You could have used me, but I’ve stopped losing much (unless you consider my computer crashing me out of a trade), mainly due to Cracking Crypto.
My advice (taken with a pinch of salt, not financial advice): don’t fomo trade!!! Seeing a trend or pump/dump happening, then scrambling your keyboard to jump in is going to cost you dearly.
Plan your trades, understand price movement first, follow underlying trends, anticipate what is going to happen.
Learn your chart patterns, candle forms, understand the sentiment they express. Learn about support and resistance levels. Become friends with price momentum, abnormal volume and liquidity grabs. Fake trade first. Back test your strategy (many valid strategies out there, find the one that suits your personality the best).
A big wake-up call for me was realizing that I’m starting off as a ‘retail trader’; professional and institutional traders are trading against me, taking out my stop losses. Exchanges are there to make money, not necessarily to provide a service. Manage your risk!
Your best trades are going to be the ones you’ve planned & understand. Be confident in your strategy. Be present, sleep well. Love yourself. Don’t think you’re worthy of wealth, study, know it!